It is always great to have futurists from outside our industry on the show. We live in disruptive times, and I think it is essential to listen to multiple perspectives on the way current trends will develop to create the future of the workplace.
My guest this week is Steve Wells, COO of Fast Future. A collaboration of futurists that I’ve always paid close attention to.
In the interview we discuss:
• Why the future is not just about technology
• What happens if your boss is a robot
• Fewer jobs for humans doesn’t have to be a dystopian vision
• Challenging the cultural DNA of organisations to enable better planning for the future
• The skills needed for a future of work that hasn’t been designed yet
• Which new technologies will create new sectors
Steve also talks about digital literacy and the importance of a very human future
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Transcript:
Matt Alder [00:00:00]:
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Matt Alder [00:01:22]:
Hi everyone, this is Matt Alder. Welcome to episode 159 of the Recruiting Future podcast. It’s always great to have futurists from outside our industry on the show. We live in disruptive times, and I think it’s important to listen to multiple perspectives on how current trends will develop to create the future of the workplace. My guest this week is Steve Wells, COO of Fast Future, which is a collaboration of futurists that I’ve always paid close attention to. Keep listening because I know you’ll find Steve’s insights absolutely fascinating. Hi, Steve, and welcome to the podcast.
Steve Wells [00:02:06]:
Thanks very much indeed, Matt. Great to be here.
Matt Alder [00:02:08]:
An absolute pleasure to have you on the show. Could you introduce yourself and tell everyone what you do?
Steve Wells [00:02:14]:
Yeah, delighted to. So my name’s Steve Wells and I’m COO of a company called Fast Future. And we are a company of futurists. We operate around the world. We basically do three things. We do a bit of strategic consult consultancy, largely based around bespoke pieces of foresight work for clients. We do keynote speaking, so we deliver presentations, keynote speeches, workshops all around the world, and we also publish books about the future. So everything we do is based on some foresight research about a particular aspect of the future that we or clients or delegates at events are particularly interested in.
Matt Alder [00:02:57]:
I think that’s. That’s really interesting because, you know, I’ve had a number of futurists on, on the show in the past, and what I’m always interested in is, you know, what’s your methodology and your basis for predicting the future. So could you tell us a little bit more about the research that you do, how you do it, and the books that you write.
Steve Wells [00:03:17]:
Sure. So the research is kind of based on really getting out there and trying to understand and spot some of the weak signals that maybe we’re starting see in a number of technologies, for example, that seem to be emerging out of laboratories all around the world. But what we typically do is try to put those in some sort of broader context. So how is it that the technologies that we’re seeing, like nanotechnology, like blockchain, like artificial intelligence, how are they potentially going to affect life, business, and society in the future? So we very often develop kind of mini scenarios to help people make sense of those. The one thing that I. I would say that we try not to do is to make predictions. So what we’re trying to do with the little scenarios that we develop is kind of create a range of plausible futures against which people can assess whether they need new policy, new strategy, whether they need flexible or more resilient strategies. Because I think the underlying context for a lot of these scenarios is the pure pace and scale of change, the exponential nature of change, and the increasingly uncertain world we live in. And I think it’s really important for us as futurists to understand that that’s not just about technology. That’s about other social trends. It’s about demography, it’s about politics, it’s about economics, it’s about society more broadly, increasing urbanization. So there are a whole bunch of things that we need to kind of sit around, the technological things that we see so that we can put them in context that hopefully helps people make sense of them a little bit more easily.
Matt Alder [00:04:58]:
Really interesting stuff. Now, I know that you guys have just sort of collaborated on a new book called A Very Human Future. I think it’s something that’s going to be very interesting for the podcast audience because you’re looking at aspects of, you know, jobs and business and the workplace and industries and what they’ll look like in the future. Can you tell us a little bit about the book?
Steve Wells [00:05:22]:
Sure. Well, the book, A Very Human Future has become kind of, in essence, part of the ethos of fast future and the reason that we’re in business. So we fundamentally believe that that society generally is at a bit of a choice point. That choice point is about do we embrace the opportunity that technology represents on a more societal level? So how do we deploy technology? How do we think about its development? How do we use technology in our life, in society, more broadly, in business? Specifically to help create a more human future with the opportunities available to all. Or do we kind of resort to a sort of a default situation which is where most of the benefits are taken for profit by big technology corporations, for example. So it feels to us that we do have this opportunity right now, that the so called fourth Industrial Revolution is very different to the previous three. And we genuinely do have some of these really big questions to answer. And hopefully what we do through a very human future is start to put some of those questions in context and hopefully provide some kind of guide, if you like, almost a framework through which we can think about some of the domains of activity that we may need to undertake to ensure a very human future.
Matt Alder [00:06:49]:
Now what I think is interesting about the work that you guys do is you take a, perhaps a much longer term view into the future than, you know, some other, some other people I’ve sort of spoken to who are looking at this, looking at this kind of thing. Based on that, tell us a little bit about some of the scenarios you’ve got for jobs and the workplace sort of moving forward, you know, 20 years or so.
Steve Wells [00:07:16]:
Well, I mean, I think that’s really interesting first of all that you say about how far into the future people look, because one of the things that we typically say is that we think future proofed organizations work across three horizons in parallel. So we know how important it is for all organizations, be they public or private sector, to win the race for the current year. So that’s all about our operational excellence and meeting the expectations that we’ve set at the beginning of the year with our stakeholders. The second horizon is then taking a little bit further, a little bit more of a look into the future. And that’s typically associated with kind of a budget, a forecast, a strategic planning process. But typically what a lot of organizations do is they basically extrapolate from the past. So you know, what’s happened in the past is a big driver for what we say is going to happen in the future. And of course, all of our corporate processes are geared around creating a sense of certainty, to giving ourselves comfort and confidence about an uncertain future that we can then communicate to our external stakeholders, if it’s a government, to the electorate, and if it’s a company, maybe to our employees as well as to our investors. Increasingly we think that really successful organizations look at a third time horizon and that’s really taking more of a helicopter view across the horizon to understand the underlying future drivers that we see. And that’s not about making decisions right now about Something that may or may not happen in four to 10 years time. But it’s about being prepared. It’s about developing robust and resilient strategies. It’s about giving ourselves the opportunity to make informed choices. So that’s kind of the third time horizon that I think is critically important. Now, when we start to think about how some of the trends, some of the issues, some of the scenarios and some of the technologies and the changes that we’re seeing may manifest themselves into the future, may. Maybe we can see a world of multiple actors. And what I mean by that is if we think about how the nature of work, the nature of jobs, the nature of technology, and the nature of humanity are changing, maybe our workplaces become occupied not just by normal humans. And I’m imagining most of the people listening to the podcast would kind of classify themselves as normal humans. But increasingly we’re seeing technologies and a willingness for us to enhance ourselves, be that through the likes of nootropics or be that through implanted devices inside our bodies. So this notion maybe of human 2.0 could come into play as well. And the interesting thing there is, if we’re an unenhanced human, how do we compete with an enhanced human for the job that we really want? And actually, maybe that situation gets worse, if I can use that word. Because if we think about the potential development of artificially intelligent robots in the workplace, how do I complete compete with a machine that’s as smart as I am, that can think faster than I can, that doesn’t want to take holidays, that can work 365 days a year, 24 hours a day? Not only that, if we then think about the integration of artificial intelligence and other types of projection type technologies, then maybe we start thinking about holograms, about avatars. So the workplace of the future may be a place of these multiple actors of unenhanced humans, of human 2.0, of robots, of androids, of holograms and avatars. And that, I think, sets up a really interesting challenge about how do we manage our workforce and the resources available to us in the organization. What happens if my boss is a robot? Do we need to combine human resources with procurement so that what we’re actually doing is taking a more holistic view, the resources, both human and otherwise, that we need within our organizations.
Matt Alder [00:11:19]:
Fascinating stuff, particularly about that kind of, you know, mix of actors in the, in, in, in, in the work, in the workplace. Do you know, I mean, there, there are obviously lots of discussions around, you know, what, what this means for jobs for humans. And, and there appears to be sort of two, two, two points of view around this one. One which is sort of quite dystopian that every job will be, and they will kind of rule the world. And the other one is very optimistic that actually, you know, new technologies will create new opportunities for humans. What jobs are humans going to do? What, you know, what is the role of humans in this future workplace?
Steve Wells [00:12:03]:
Well, I mean, the first thing I’d say is that it’s interesting that you use the word dystopian to describe a world where there are 50% of the jobs there are now. I suppose it’s only dystopian if we keep doing the things that we do now about our economy through our politics and the, that we consider unemployment. If we think about the technological advance that comes alongside that dynamic within the jobs marketplace and we say, how do we realign society both in terms of technology, the ownership of technology, the way that we tax, the way that we support social systems? And maybe we can actually create a much more human perspective, rather than a dystopian one, on how we have access to those technologies and maybe some of the changes that we could hope for in a more human future. So maybe we have access to education and training that’s not just about jobs, but it’s actually about how we live more fulfilling lives without the world of work. So I think that’s one thing I would say about the notion of kind of dystopia in this, in this particular future. So typically what we’re starting to see here is that those kind of job. Well, first of all, let’s take manufacturing, a lot of manufacturing jobs that are likely and have already been replaced by, by automatic processes and automatic machines. And maybe we’re starting to see that happen across the white collar sector as well. So typically think of people working in call centers, typically people working in finance roles, even legal roles. And I guess what we’re starting to see there is the issue of something like artificial intelligence being able to pretty much do most jobs where there’s a codifiable element to them. So if we think about accounting, accounting is basically a process, a system against which we apply a number of rules. So that kind of. That’s what I mean by codified. That’s what I mean, that that can be replaced by machines. And maybe the same is true in a lot of the way that law is managed as well. So wherever we can codify something in the white collar sector, maybe there’s an opportunity for us to automate that the Impact then is so if we’re all doing the same thing with the same technology, how do we differentiate our businesses? And maybe that’s about the elements, so the relationships that we might develop, how we make sense of the things once we’ve codified them and once we’ve got the machines doing the kind of the number crunching element, if you like, maybe it’s about creativity, maybe it’s about other aspects of how and why we develop relationships across society. So we kind of need, if you like, to reposition what we think of as valuable in the jobs market in the way that we work, in the way that we design work going forward. And that obviously then has an implication on education. So at the moment, I guess what we’re starting to see is we’re starting to see people think about what does the world of work look like, how does that affect education if, as some people suggest, 2/3 of the jobs that children currently entering primary school are going to do in when they leave haven’t been created yet. So this is what I mean by, you know, taking a different view on the social structures that we have have. If we take a different view on some of those structures like education, like training, like a mindset around unemployability, then maybe we establish a different aspect to our social systems so that we can create people who will be able to live fulfilling lives in a world of non work.
Matt Alder [00:15:46]:
So lots of people listening to the show work in hr, work in talent and will have a kind of a direct influence within their company in terms of, you know, in terms of, I suppose, setting, setting policies and understanding, you know, the role of, the role of people as the future unfolds. I know that you’ve kind of, in the book, you sort of, you know, you map out a manifesto for what, what a very human future looks like. Could you, could you sort of talk us, talk us through that?
Steve Wells [00:16:19]:
Yeah, sure. So the manifesto is, really seeks to identify 12 DOM of policy, strategy of activity that we think is critically important for businesses, for governments and for individuals to help think about how we transition to a much more human future. And the first of those is really about leadership. And leadership actually stems from the requirement, I think, for us to adopt a new mindset. What I mean by that is if, if we buy the notion of exponential change and increasing uncertainty in the world, then we seem to me to have two choices. One is do we want to play by the rules of the game that we’ve always played? But the issue there is if you always do what you’ve always done. You’ll always get what you’ve always got. But if we think about the context of change, then standing still probably isn’t an option. The alternative to that is to actually create a new game, to look at the opportunities that new technologies, new ideas represent for us. And we’re increasingly seeing this notion of exponentiality applied to business thinking. The big challenge here is actually in our existing organizations. Are we able to change the underlying DNA of our organization to challenge and change the culture so that we are able to move away from the safety of the current game we’ve been playing and to actually create a new game? And I think leaders increasingly, when they start to think about that, when they start to think about both the challenges and the opportunities of the future, will realize that there’s much less certainty, there’s much less agreement, there’s much more uncertainty about how things will play out. So maybe what we’re going to be seeing is much more activity in the domain of wicked problems, trying to understand the social nature of the problems, increasingly needing to collaborate to find some solutions. So a notion of extraordinary leadership, I think, will have all these, will need all these attributes within the leader to help both take the organization and importantly, the people within the organization with them. Typically, what we see, of course, at the moment is leadership within organizations kind of closeted away, coming up with a new strategy, spending months identifying what that strategy is and the actions that we need to take, and then expecting the rest of the organization to get it and come with them after one presentation or town hall meeting. So maybe we need a whole bunch of new skills around our leaders to help that process along. I think digital literacy becomes really critically important. That’s not about code. It’s about creating an understanding of digitization in the future economy, in the future workplace, what it means, how do we embrace it, what are the choices we have, what do we need to learn so that we can make informed choices about what it means for us and which of the technologies that we adopt and adapt to our needs? The third domain is really about education systems. And I don’t just mean school here. I’m thinking about everything from kindergarten right up to lifelong learning in job learning. And I touched on this, on this a couple of minutes ago. How is our education system at the moment best suited to develop and deliver people suitable for a world of work that hasn’t been fully designed yet? So what are the things that we need to think about? What are the kind of the core underlying strengths that we need? But then what are maybe Some of the more softer skills, like reasoning, like strategizing, like collaborating, like working empathetically. So, you know, what are some of those other traits that we need within the education system so that we do equip people in a much more holistic way for a new world of work? As I say, that is still evolving, that hasn’t been developed yet. The next area is about evaluating exponentials. What I mean by that is typically big organizations and government are very slow to adopt and adapt to new ideas, to new technologies. So we kind of need to create a sense that it’s okay to experiment. And, and companies and governments really don’t like that. Companies don’t like it because their investors don’t like them to be seen to fail. Those are quite difficult messages to communicate to employees and to investors and other stakeholders. And actually the same is true of governments as well. Governments like to kind of create a sense of certainty, a sense of comfort, a sense of it’s always been like this and it’s always going to be the same because at the end of the electoral cycle, they’re communicating to their consumers, to their customers, trying to put a proposition to them to give them more time to do the things they want to do. I think there’s then an area around employer responsibilities, and that’s potentially about thinking, if I’m going to make people redundant in my organization through automation, what responsibilities should I have to help them train for a new role? What responsibility should I have to the broader ecosystem about funding them through a period of uncertainty? Not only that, if we are automating processes inside our organizations, what additional responsibilities should I have if I’m automating? Employee monitoring, reporting, assessment to ensure I look after their personal information. And how might the employee needs change if I start to create an organization with multiple actors? I think another area is support for job creation. So what are the kind of investments that we need to make as a society, not just through government, but maybe through the public sector, through the private sector as well, to create new opportunities, to create new jobs, to create an environment that brings new technologies and new business sectors into play in terms of actually investing in the job list, maybe this is where we need to start now, to run experiments around things like universal basic income or conditional basic income. Maybe think of conditional or universal basic services. We’re starting to see some local authorities across Europe now put on free public transport, for example. Now one of the reasons to do that is to try to encourage us not to use so many car journeys. But maybe that’s Also a way to make people more mobile and have them apply for jobs maybe further away from home. So how do we invest in the jobless and create systems that allow them to fully integrate and fully continue to act as a fully paid up member of society? The other is about kind of creating the right sort of environment for new sectors to flourish. So if we look at the breadth of technologies that we’re seeing emerge at the moment, around AI, around robotics, around drones, nanotechnology, new computing ideas, new blockchain areas, synthetic biology, there’s a whole bunch of these new technologies that will come in to create new sectors. What are the kind of the frameworks that we need in all order for those sectors to flourish and ultimately create new employment? We’d hope. The ninth area then is about addressing the mental health challenge. Every day now, it seems to me that there are articles either in the newspapers or items on the news talking about stress and talking about the impact of mental health. So maybe we need to invest in training new therapists, training new counselors, so that we consider mental health in exactly the same way, way that we do physical health. That’s likely to become an increasingly major issue. The increasing degree of uncertainty we have as we kind of transition from the current world into this new, more digitized world. The other area then is what about technology ethics? What are the ethical conditions under which we want to bring new technologies to market? How do we actually do that in a way that, that’s that we create the right balance between governance and guidance? How do we do that in a way that makes sure technologies are safe for humanity in the future? Is there an opportunity to create something on a global, a regional or as well as a national basis on which we can be assured that the technologies are being developed for the good of everyone and not purely just for profit, and then potentially to take control of more of our lives? So some of those sort of dystopian futures that we’ve seen in science fiction, for example, the Penalta area then is actually not to throw away everything that we’ve learned from the past, but to draw constructively on the past. So what is it in the past that’s enabled us to create long lasting relationships? What is it that we value of our basic humanity from the past? And how do we use the opportunity presented by new technologies to help us make that past, make those past opportunities live into the future, given that we’re entering a much more automated and much more technologically driven world? And the final area is doing the kind of thing that podcasts like this actually facilitate. And that’s make sure that we have a very human dialogue to make sure that we raise these issues into public consciousness so that people can be aware of the issues, the challenges and the opportunities that this new raft of technological advances represents for us and that we can actually make what I would think would be the right choice and move to a very human future rather than a, you know, potentially a technologically driven dystopian one.
Matt Alder [00:26:06]:
So final question. I know that, you know, we’re not just talking about technology. There are all the other aspects that, that you indicated that go into this, but just sort of focusing, say on the next two to five years, what sort of current technology do you think is going to make the biggest difference to the workplace in that time period?
Steve Wells [00:26:32]:
I’m going to be very boring and say artificial intelligence, I think what we’re starting to see with AI is just how potentially powerful it can be in automating more and more of our processes. And I think that represents, presents a massive challenge right now. What is the motivation for any organization, for any business to automate processes and systems through the use of AI? And for me, that motivation is about efficiency, it’s about profit. So the elephant in the room is obviously by getting rid of jobs within the organization. That’s kind of what we mean. We yet to really see artificial intelligence used to genuinely enhance our relationships, our interaction with customers. I think even those applications that we generally see that change, interaction with customers are very much about our operational efficiency within the business. And I don’t necessarily see that changing. If we think about the political and economic context, particularly in the UK and particularly with Brexit, but also with some of the other areas, areas that we’re seeing politically and economically around the world, potential trade, war between the US and China, increasing protectionism of the US market, all those kind of things. Then right now I can see more and more organizations looking at AI as an opportunity to protect their business, to build in efficiencies so that they can retain the level of profit that they’re used to delivering. So I think it then becomes incumbent upon maybe some kind of partnership, increasing collaboration between politicians and business leaders to say, so how with all that backdrop, do we make sure that we don’t harm our societies for the longer term by just allowing people to be made redundant? How do we then support them in some way through this kind of difficult period that we’re inevitably coming up towards? And I think that’s the biggest challenge and I do think it’s around artificial intelligence. Because we see AI playing a big part, not just in kind of the efficiency of business processes, but also in the likes of autonomous vehicles. So, you know, we’re likely to see autonomous driving becoming a big thing. So at the moment, there’s a shortage of truck drivers in the U.S. maybe that’s only temporary because as soon as we have autonomous trucks in the U.S. then we, you know, we don’t need to fill those vacancies that we have. And we can kind of see that being replicated across different areas of the mobility economy as well. So that’s what makes me say AI.
Matt Alder [00:29:22]:
Absolutely. And I couldn’t agree with you more. Steve, thank you very much for talking to me.
Steve Wells [00:29:28]:
My absolute pleasure, Matt.
Matt Alder [00:29:30]:
My thanks to Steve Wells. You can subscribe to this podcast in Apple Podcasts or via your podcasting app of choice. The show also has its own app, which you can find by searching for Recruiting Future in your App Store. If you’re a Spotify user, you can also find the show there. You could find all the past episodes@www.rfpodcast.com on that site. You can also subscribe to the mailing list and find out more about Working with me. Thanks very much for listening. I’ll be back next week and I hope you’ll join me.
